, 2009). The data used in the present study can be divided into two groups. The first is used to calibrate and validate the statistical model (Section 3.1), whereas

the second serves to project future wave climate (Section 3.2). The 44-year (1958–2001) wave and atmospheric hindcast database from the European HIPOCAS project (Guedes Soares et al., 2002) is used to calibrate and validate the statistical model (see Section 4.5). The atmospheric variables are taken from the output of the Regional Circulation Model REMO (Jacob, 2012), forced by the global NCEP reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., 1996). The waves were simulated using the WAM model (The WAMDI Group, 1988). Although real measurements (with buoys, wave gauges, Fulvestrant supplier radars…) are usually more reliable, they do not have enough spatial and temporal coverage for the purpose this website of this study. The HIPOCAS database

has been validated for wind, wave and sea-level parameters (Musić and Nicković, 2008, Sotillo et al., 2005 and Ratsimandresy et al., 2008). HIPOCAS data underestimates to some extend extreme events (Ratsimandresy et al., 2008), which might be attributable to numerical inertia. Certainly, taking into account the complex Mediterranean climate, this dataset would benefit from an observation-based correction, as recently done by Minguez et al., 2011 and Martinez-Asensio et al., 2013. However, Ortego et al. (2012) did not find statistical evidence of wave storm magnitude Mannose-binding protein-associated serine protease bias between HIPOCAS data and buoy observations in the southern Catalan coast. Ratsimandresy et al. (2008) found that HIPOCAS data generally reproduces mean values quite well. Therefore, the HIPOCAS data is suitable to calibrate and validate our statistical model in this study. In particular, we use the sea level pressure (SLP) and the significant wave height (HsHs) from this database. These data have a temporal resolution of 1 h and 3 h, respectively, and the spatial resolution is 0.5°° for SLP and varies from 0.125°° to 0.5°° for HsHs (the latter illustrated with dots in Fig. 2). Once the coefficients

of the model are estimated and evaluated, the statistical model is applied to 5 datasets of SLP projections obtained from climate models in order to obtain their corresponding HsHs fields. As detailed in Table 1, these 5 sets of SLP projections were respectively simulated using 4 different RCMs: HIRHAM5 (Christensen et al., 2007), RACMO2 (van Meijgaard et al., 2008), REMO, and RCA3 (Samuelsson et al., 2011). Such regional high spatial-resolution projections (25 km) were developed within the context of the ENSEMBLES project forced by the mid-line A1B emission scenario (IPCC, 2007). The high temporal resolution (1 h–3 h) version of those simulations were freely put at our disposal by 4 European research institutes (see Table 1). The ECHAM5 GCM (Roeckner et al.