The ROC curve analysis showed the accuracy of EBV load in PBMC1 for predicting progression to B lymphoma: the area under the ROC curve was

0.72 (95% CI 0.58–085; selleck chemical P = 0.0014). The optimal cut-off threshold of EBV load that yielded the maximal sensitivity and specificity for predicting the development of B lymphoma was determined as 3.2 log10 copies/106 PBMCs. The sensitivity and specificity obtained with this cut-off value were 75 and 65%, respectively. Setting the cut-off level at 2.8 log10 copies/106 PBMCs allowed a higher sensitivity (85%) to be obtained, but at the price of a substantial decrease in specificity (40.5%). Having an EBV DNA load > 3.2 log10 copies/106 PBMCs was associated with an adjusted OR of 4.82 (95% CI 1.33; 17.46) for progression to B lymphoma within the next 10 months. EBV load in PBMCs had, as expected, poor accuracy

for identifying patients at risk for developing brain lymphoma (area under ROC curve 0.57; 95% CI 0.38; 0.76; P = 0.5). In this study, high levels of EBV DNA in PBMCs were predictive of subsequent progression to systemic B lymphoma when measured within 1 year before the diagnosis of lymphoma. One previous study failed to demonstrate such Selleck GSK3 inhibitor an association between EBV DNA level and the development of ARL [16]. This could be explained by the fact that, in this previous study, patients and controls were not matched for CD4 cell count and also by the fact that a limited number of cases (n = 9) and controls (n = 12) were tested. As expected, we found no association between EBV DNA levels in PBMCs and/or

in serum and the development of cerebral lymphoma. The lack of sensitivity of EBV PCR in blood Gemcitabine for the diagnosis of cerebral lymphoma in patients with AIDS was demonstrated by Fan et al. [19], although there was a correlation between PBL and high levels of EBV DNA in cerebrospinal fluid [20]. This is likely to be attributable to the fact that PBLs are very compartmentalized tumours with low or no systemic dissemination. This result, however, has no major implications in clinical practice, as the incidence of PBL has dramatically fallen following the introduction of cART, PBL now representing less than 10% of all ARLs [7]. Indeed, no case of PBL was reported after 1995 in our cohorts. In this study, EBV DNA was quantified in stored samples (i.e. mainly cryopreserved PBMCs and serum samples). The choice of biological material used for EBV DNA quantification, i.e. PBMCs, whole blood, plasma or serum, has been a matter for debate and there is currently no consensus on which is the best material for EBV load measurement in EBV-associated lymphoproliferative disorders [21, 22]. In these settings, whole blood or PBMCs more frequently contained amplifiable EBV DNA than did plasma or serum [15, 23-25].